For example, in 2014, Vanguard’s 10-year market forecast predicted that non-U.S. Stocks would outgain domestic equities by an annualized 2 percentage points. Grantham, moneyball the art of winning an unfair game Mayo, Van Otterloo expected a 5-point gap for the next seven years. Morgan, which ranked the future prospects of American stocks dead last among developed markets.
Consequently, I halved the performance table, with the first section covering the 26-year period from 1970 through 1995, and the second from 1996 through the present. The United States led among the giants, outgaining each of the next three largest economies of–to use their 1970 rankings–Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. To address the question, I confined myself to the past half century.
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John Rekenthaler () has been researching the fund industry since 1988. He is now a columnist for Morningstar.com and a member of Morningstar’s investment research department. John is quick to point out that while Morningstar typically agrees with the views of the Rekenthaler Report, his views are his own. Over the past several years, American stocks have excelled. Such performance has defied the institutional consensus.
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The era’s other noteworthy aspect was its sluggishness. Real annualized U.S. equity returns were 4%, as opposed to the almost 8% average that they have posted over the past 100 years. The U.S. wasn’t an also-ran because it jogged while others sprinted. Instead, it muddled along with the rest of the developed-markets pack through what proved to be a relative bear market. Very interesting as a period piece, Ishihara envisions a 21st Century with Japan in the vanguard.
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In summary, a bet on American ingenuity is a bet on the continued success of the technology sector. Prospects for the rest of the U.S. stock forex book review market appear to be no better or worse than what lies elsewhere. I wondered how much of the American advantage owed to recent results.
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Then, during the ’80s and early ’90s, which were my formative investment years, the U.S. business press crowed about American achievements. Europe was mired in sluggish growth, Japan had capex forex trading succumbed to speculation, but the U.S. thrived. I served my apprenticeship believing that the U.S. held a competitive advantage. Yet its stock market trailed both Japan’s and the U.K.’s.
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American stocks also outgained Chinese equities, which were re-introduced in 1990. (An earlier incarnation of the Chinese stock market was shuttered in 1949, when the communists took control.) The big dog became bigger. After accounting for the effect of inflation, the five top countries from the nominal-returns chart retained their rankings. Thanks to its low inflation rate, Japan leapfrogged four slots. Conversely, the Mediterranean nations of Spain and Italy slid to the bottom. Although switching to real returns did not alter the U.S.’ position, doing so did improve its relative showing.
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The returns were calculated in nominal terms, which is fine for evaluating outcomes within a country, where inflation affects all parties equally. But it fails when comparing results from different countries, which experience different inflation rates. Doing so removed Hong Kong and Singapore from the list, as I could not easily obtain their 52-year inflation rates. Supporting the exchange of viewpoints, expertise and ideas amongst members of the business community at NAF meetings and lectures. Facilitating fundraising in the United States for Dutch cultural and educational institutions.
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The most telling point to be made about this book is that Mr. Morita, to his credit, disavowed his participation later on. THE JAPAN THAT CAN SAY “NO” created a minor splash at the time, but I think that today it can be forgotten. If you are looking for a good book on Japan’s situation up to the mid-1990s, you should take a look at “The Emptiness of Japanese Affluence” by Gavan McCormick. That book could be subtitled, “The Japan That Should Have Said No.”